Year three: What fate awaits the fighting in Ukraine?
As we enter year three of the war between Ukraine and Russia, the death toll continues to rise, and there doesn’t appear to be any end in sight to the war.Craig Albert, PhD, professor of politics and director of the Master of Arts in Intelligence and Security Studies at Pamplin College of Arts, Humanities, and Social Sciences at Augusta University, said it appears victory does not seem likely for either side, and he expects it to form into a “frozen conflict.”“There are two ways out of this, however,” said Albert. “The first is that the West, mainly the United States, does not continue to arm Ukraine. If this becomes the new normal, then Ukraine will not be able to keep up against Russia and will eventually fall through a war of attrition being waged by Russia.”“The second, less likely but far more threatening scenario, is that Russia expands the war to other states in the area or inadvertently hits a NATO-member state with either kinetic or massive cyberattacks. It may draw NATO into the war directly. In this case, Ukraine takes the advantage, but the war expands to something not seen since World War II.”Albert added that the war is becoming a war of attrition, and, if one side maintains morale, weapons and supply-chain logistics and if one side can maintain air superiority, it’s likely to have an advantage.“If Ukraine manages to get F-16s in the fight sooner rather than later, and longer-ranged missiles are given to them as well, this could cause a stalemate and force Russia into negotiation,” Albert said.He noted Ukraine is making significant gains in the air and has managed to shoot down seven sophisticated aircraft recently, forcing Russian air units to be more cautious about their tactics and even move further away from the frontline.“If this continues, Ukraine can exploit this as Russian forces would likely be left without air cover in future battles.”With everything that has happened in the first two years of the war, it has not deterred Russian President Vladimir Putin from ramping up his resolve.“Putin has doubled-down,” Albert said. “He has increased his forces in the fight, made more aggressive postures to NATO member states and has unleashed his cyber and informational capabilities across the world to take advantage in those realms. Putin continues to pursue pure power politics and is unlikely to back down.”Craig Albert, PhD, is director of the Master of Arts in Intelligence and Security Studies at Augusta University. He is a leading expert on war, terrorism and American politics. This is an important international and national issue. Albert is available to speak with media – simply click on his name to arrange an interview today.
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2 min
Expert Q & A: What led to the Hamas attack on Israel and what role will the United States play?
The conflict between Israel and Palestine dates back many years, but the recent escalation can be attributed to issues centering around Palestinian rights and access to the Al-Aqsa Mosque, according to Craig Albert, PhD, program director of the Master of Arts in Intelligence and Security Studies at Pamplin College of Arts Humanities, and Social Sciences at Augusta University.Albert, who is a leading expert on relations in the Middle East and American interests in the region, also notes that Hamas has been fighting against what it believes is unwarranted and illegal Israeli settlements being extended into Palestinian territory, while Israel has had a serious blockade on the Gaza Strip for over a decade. Hamas views this as state-oppression and thus, when combined, led to this horrific attack. Q: Now that Israel is declaring war, what should we expect to see in the upcoming days/weeks?A: We should expect more attacks by Hamas and Islamic Jihad, as well as Hezbollah from Lebanon. This means that there is a serious possibility of a two front war for Israel as it strikes towards the Gaza Strip near the sea, and more north into Lebanon. Concerning the State of Israel, look for a massive air bombardment over the next few days until the conditions on the ground are satisfactory, according to Israeli intelligence, to send in massive ground forces. One can expect a full infantry onslaught with all that entails within the Gaza Strip and perhaps other areas as well. We could also seem so strikes against Iran, especially cyber in nature, but perhaps, much more kinetic than we can imagine given the emotions being felt by the Israeli security council. Unfortunately, we can expect massive civilian casualties on both sides as this continues especially when Israel invades with its heavy ground forces. Q: What role does the U.S. play in all of this? A: The United States is already sending in a carrier fleet to show support for Israel; but one can imagine a scenario where Israel and Iran get into a serious confrontation, resulting in direct action by the U.S. on the side of Israel. The U.S. is also already supplying munitions and intelligence to the Israelis, and we should expect to see more in this area over the coming weeks and months. Note that the U.S. might have to take drastic actions itself as its war materials are being dramatically reduced because of arming the Ukrainians against Russia, and now, looking to arm heavily Israel. It is quite possible that the U.S. could be pulled into this in a direct way but currently, it just does not have the war material to conduct massive military operations if called to do so. This is quite a dramatic situation for the U.S., and of course for Israel.Looking to know more or connect with Dr. Albert for an interview?Dr. Albert is available to speak with media – simply click on his name to arrange an interview today.
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4 min
One year later, what comes next for Ukraine?
The war between Ukraine and Russia has raged for a year, with both sides gaining and losing ground while casualties mount and no clear prospects for peace seem to emerge.On the anniversary of this invasion, there are still many questions to be asked, and Augusta University Professor Craig Albert, PhD, is ready to provide answers about what's happening and what we can expect next. How surprising is it that the Ukraine-Russian war is still ongoing?“I think for Russia, it’s a huge surprise, and I think maybe for the rest of the world, it’s a bit of a surprise as well. What people often forget is that Ukraine has been fighting and training for 10 years. So Moscow was going on the understanding that the way and the ease in which they went into those parts of Ukraine in 2014, that they would have the same amount of ease this time. They didn’t calculate properly or they misperceived that Ukraine soldiers have been fighting them and rotating in and out of the east for 10 years and had much more experience and were prepared for this.”How does the anniversary play a role in the war?“Everyone knew Putin was going to increase the attacks leading up to the year anniversary. Both sides have been expecting a new counter offensive against each other coming for the spring. What we should note from this is that a couple of times over the past couple of weeks, the Russian death toll has been over 1,000 per day. Think of that as the United States lost something like 5,000 in Iraq, the entire 17-18 years the US was there. So that’s something we need to take into account. They are increasing their attacks but they’re meeting massive resistance and some are calling it a meat grinder, where the Russian side is just throwing troops into it and they are just being mowed down.”While Ukraine has been preparing for some time, was their resolve still unexpected?“I think their resolve is based upon the fact they’re getting so many munitions from the west. I think their resolve and morality would be much worse if they weren’t getting the type of equipment, the type of war material that the west is providing them. If it wasn’t for the west helping them, I think we’d be talking a much different scenario. If Russia is successful in the war and how they define success, and they occupy all of Ukraine, then that’s a likely scenario. If Ukraine continues a war of attrition with Moscow, the war of numbers suggest that Moscow is going to win. You’re looking at Russia ultimately winning just because of the law of numbers."What do you make of President Biden’s visit to Ukraine?“It’s a huge symbolic victory. I did not expect President Biden to visit Ukraine at all. I thought that was gutsy. I think both sides of the aisle thought that was pretty gutsy. That’s a pretty scary situation and presidents generally don’t visit a war-torn country, even when the United States is at war. I think it was a show of strength, a show of unity, maybe even a show of what’s to come with EU ascension or NATO ascension for President Biden to be on the ground in Kiev.”How long do you see this continuing?“It depends on how far Russia is willing to go. Russia isn’t fighting the war if it fought the United States. Russia has the capability to completely bombard and send in massive numbers of untrained soldiers by the hundreds and thousands and just overwhelm Ukraine. I think why they’re not doing that is that they still want to control and have a friendly Ukrainian population once they completely have all the territory of Ukraine. I think that’s Putin’s goal and that’s why he hasn’t done that so far. I think we’re looking at least another year. These types of huge wars, and this is a major, major war, it has the propensity to pull in outside parties. And when you’re talking about NATO being right there, we could be talking about something much bigger if this war doesn’t cease soon.”Albert can explain what could happen next in Ukraine, as there are several possible scenarios and outcomes in the long and short term of this war. And if you’re a journalist looking to know more about what lies ahead as the war between Ukraine and Russia continues and how it may impact the United States, then let us help with your questions and coverage.Albert is director of the Master of Arts in Intelligence and Security Studies at Augusta University. He is a leading expert on war, terrorism and American politics. This is an important national and international issue. Albert is available to speak with media – simply click on his name to arrange an interview today.
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Biography
Albert is the director of the Master of Arts in Intelligence and Security Studies and an associate professor of political science at Augusta University. He received his PhD in international relations and American politics from the University of Connecticut in 2009. His research interests include ethnic conflict and terrorism, theology and modern politics, and political science education. His work has been published in journals including Politics, East European Politics, Iran and the Caucasus, and Journal of Political Science Education. He co-founded and directs Augusta University's Model United Nations Program and teaches courses on American politics, security studies and political philosophy, as well as topics of special interest, including zombies and international relations, hip hop and politics, and James Bond and terrorism.
The alleged perpetrators of the attack on a Moscow music venue appeared in court as the nation mourned the loss of more than 130. Craig Albert, political science professor and graduate director of the Master of Arts in Intelligence and Security Studies at Augusta University in Georgia, shares takeaways from what’s known. Russia carried out attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure, while Kyiv says it destroyed a pair of Russian naval vessels docked in Crimea. Israeli forces continue their operations around two hospitals in Gaza. Senegalese officials begin counting votes from Sunday’s election.
The TikTok Ban Is Truly An Issue Of National Security
Voices of America online
2024-03-15
As Beijing already bans most U.S. social media platforms, the most obvious question to ask is why should Washington allow a Chinese-owned app to be available in the United States? The answer, according to most experts, is that it probably shouldn't—but this is more than just a case of turnabout being fair play, or a tit-for-tat response.
TikTok could be seen as a valid national security threat, warned lawmakers this week. The issues go far deeper than just the user data that China could access.
"TikTok, owned by ByteDance, presents significant cybersecurity concerns for the United States, primarily due to the potential exploitation of its vast user base and the Chinese company's access to user data. The scale of TikTok's user engagement, combined with China's track record of aggressive cyber activities, raises the specter of sophisticated cyber threats targeting American users, including surveillance, data breaches, and manipulation of online discourse," warned Lisa Plaggemier, executive director of The National Cybersecurity Alliance.
U.S. Army, AU hold workshop on artificial intelligence and its potential threats
WRDW tv
2024-01-11
Every day, the world of artificial intelligence continues to grow.
From social media to school, AI is used just about everywhere.
On Thursday, Augusta University teamed up with the U.S. Army Cyber Center of Excellence for a workshop about defending our community from unsuspecting dangers.
If you think you haven’t had a run-in with AI, think again.
When our founding fathers declared their independence from England, they didn’t include everyone. Slaves had no rights until congress passed the 13th amendment granting their freedom, following a bloody civil war.
Dr. Craig Albert said, “We have the great original sin being slavery, then the Jim Crow Laws, everything that happened in the 40’s, 50’s and 60’s.
In 1970, a race riot broke out in Augusta. It was sparked by the killing of a black teenager in the Richmond County Jail.
FLASHPOINT: GLOBAL CRISES - First Hostages Released in Israel-Hamas Cease-Fire Deal
Voices of America online
2023-11-24
A four-day cease-fire between Israel and Hamas has taken hold. Hamas has released the first group of hostages, and Israel has allowed tanker trucks loaded with fuel and cooking gas into Gaza. Qatar has emerged as one of the main negotiators in the talks between Israel and Hamas. How did this come to be? VOA Urdu’s Faiza Bukhari gets the answer from Dan Arbell, Scholar at Center for Israeli Studies at American University. Ukraine prepares to evacuate stranded truck drivers near the Polish border. What foreign policy recommendations can be made from researching anti-American propaganda on the X platform in Arabic speaking countries like Saudi Arabia? VOA’s Steve Miller speaks with the two of authors of the upcoming paper detailing the study: Craig Albert and Ahmed Aleroud, both from Augusta University in Georgia. Ahead of the COP28 climate conference, China is pressing ahead with ambitious nuclear energy expansion plans. Can nuclear generation help the world’s largest carbon emitter to make the transition to clean energy?
In God we trust. It’s America’s motto. We are a country founded on faith.
In part three of her series, “United We Stand: Issues that divide us”, Mary Morrison takes a closer look at what our first amendment right guarantees and what can happen when religious diversity is not respected.
United We Stand | Issues that divide us: Immigration
WJBF tv
2023-11-13
America. It’s one big melting pot. Except for Native Americans, all of our forefathers came from another country. And there are millions of people still trying to get into this nation of immigrants.
In part two of “United We Stand, Issues That Divide Us”, Mary Morrison takes a closer look at Immigration. And she introduces to us a young man who almost made that dangerous journey to the U.S.
They are willing to risk their very lives to escape the corruption, crime and poverty that plague many Central American countries, just for a chance at starting a new life in America.
“The easiest way to get in is through political asylum,” said Dr. Craig Albert. “Show that you are a political refugee that your government is oppressing you, that your only hope is to get into the United States.”
Gerson considered taking that dangerous path to what many migrants see as the “promised land.”
Guns. In America, we have the right to bear arms. It’s guaranteed by the second Amendment in the Bill of Rights.
Dr. Craig Albert is a political science professor at Augusta University.
Dr. Albert said, “Of course when the founding framers wrote that, they didn’t know about the types of weapons we could have today, so it’s up to debate whether the founding framers would still keep that as is if they knew the type of weapons we have today.”
On this edition of The Means Report, we look at the war between Israel and Hamas. Augusta University Political Scientist Craig Albert is our guest. He looks at the reasons behind this conflict and how it all started. He also discusses the role of the U.S. Watch our interview and learn how the situation in the Middle East has international ramifications. Join us for The Means Report Monday afternoon at 12:30 on NewsChannel 6.
Tech entrepreneur Elon Musk has touted how X—the platform formally known as Twitter—could replace traditional media with near real-time updates as news is breaking. Yet, in the past week, X has instead been largely overtaken by misinformation coming out of the Middle East.
Since the start of the heaviest fighting seen in the region in nearly a decade, there has been a constant flow of fake photos, old videos and even some video game footage presented as coming from the region.
X has been accused of allowing fake social media accounts to spread misinformation about the ongoing conflict...
Russia's Social Media Propagandists Turning On The War—We Should Expect A Crackdown
Forbes print
2023-09-11
Since the start of Russia's so-called "special military operation" in late February 2022, the pro-Kremlin "milbloggers" who regularly report on the war via the Telegram social messaging app have carried water for President Vladimir Putin without question. Their online posts—which had often put a positive spin on the war effort to boost support among their fellow countrymen, as well as to legitimize the conflict to an international audience—was rarely critical of Moscow.
However, following the short-lived Wagner Group coup earlier this year, there have been cracks in the support that the propagandists have offered.
As Ukraine's counteroffensive has picked up steam and made success in recent weeks, the milbloggers have become increasingly critical of the war effort—if not Putin directly. It now appears that Moscow may be forced to take action and reel in any dissent.
Rise Of The Machine Learning—Deep Fakes Could Threaten Our Democracy
Forbes print
2023-09-10
For years, there have been warnings about the danger of AI, and most critics have suggested the machines could take over in a scenario similar to science fiction films such as The Terminator or The Matrix, where they literally rise up and enslave humanity.
Yet, the clear and present danger could actually be AI used to deceive voters as we head into the next primary season.
"Deep Fakes are almost certain to influence the 2024 elections," warned Dr. Craig Albert, professor of political science and graduate director of the Master of Arts in Intelligence and Security Studies at Augusta University.
"In fact, the U.S. Intelligence Community expected these types of social media influence operations to occur during the last major election cycle, 2022, but they did not occur to any substantial effect," Albert noted.
FLFLASHPOINT UKRAINE: The Aftermath Of Prigozhin’s Rebellion
Voices of America online
2023-06-26
It was an unprecedented challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin by fighters from Wagner paramilitary forces. Analysts weigh in on the weekend’s events and what it may mean for Russia moving forward. Meanwhile, front-line Ukrainian fighters say their fight with Russia has not subsided.
Terrorist attacks like the ones that recently happened in Spain's Catalonia Region are a result of ISIS losing ground in Syria and Iraq, Dr. Craig Albert, associate professor of political science, told Veja, Latin America's largest news magazine with more than 1 million subscribers.
"There is a new strategy, launched about 10 months ago, that has gained track recently. The more they lose territory in Iraq and Syria, the more they ask foreign militants to stay in their countries and commit acts of terrorism there instead of joining them abroad," Albert said.
Dr. Craig Albert discusses the meaning behind President Trump's visit to the Middle East. The interview was published by Gulan Mydia, a Kurdish media organization.
Local political science experts weigh in on the Presidential debate
wrdw12 online
2016-09-27
When it came the first presidential debate, two local political science professors said the candidates said a lot, without getting very deep into these issues.
The massacre on a Pulse Nightclub in Orlando, Florida, was carried out in the name of ISIS. While the FBI believes the “mission” was not orchestrated by the extremist group itself, it is still one of many carried out in the name of the radical Islamic sect. Political scientist Craig Albert joined “The Means Report” to offer his expertise on ISIS and terrorism and to address whether stricter gun laws will help protect U.S. citizens.
Richmond, Columbia counties inch toward 100K registered voters ahead of Election Day
WJBF
2016-09-27
Craig Albert, an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Augusta University, told NewsChannel 6, “People that are on the fence about for whom to vote or whether to vote at all, neither candidate is appealing to them at all.”
Digging deeper: How can we stay safe in the aftermath of violence such as the Orlando shooting?
WJBF
2016-06-15
Political scientist Craig Albert addressed the divide in our country, as some call the gun control issue (after shootings like this) a distraction, believing the underlying problem here is Islamic terrorism. Dr. Albert also describes how ISIS targets recruits and quickly radicalizes people.
Augusta University Professor Breaks Down Brussels Attacks
WJBF
2016-03-22
An Augusta University professor sat down with News Channel 6 about the terrorist attacks ISIS claimed responsibility for in Belgium. Craig Albert, a local terrorism expert said the deadly incident performed by the Islamic extremists is a recruiting tool and fear tactic.
Listen, let’s start with that voting lawsuit against the voting law in the state of Georgia filed by President Biden’s Department of Justice, the attorney general leading the way there, does it stand a chance of overturning the law? Can you tell if Georgia’s law is unconstitutional?
I think it follow the same trajectory as Arizona. Of course the federal government has a right to sue a state if it thinks the state is being discriminatory or isn’t being inclusive in its voting rights and regulations. So the DOJ has a right to do that. They would have to prove that the state of Georgia is willingly or intending to discriminate or to exclude certain groups or people from voting purposefully for their lawsuit to succeed, which would then force Georgia if it did succeed, it would force Georgia to then redo the law and remake the law to make it more inclusive and accepting to everybody.
“No need to rush to the gas station”, pipeline shutdown temporary
WJBF tv
2021-05-11
A fear of rising gas prices after the Colonial Pipeline cyber attack has some lined up at local gas stations. But experts say gas is not a scarcity. While there is a temporary slow down, “panic buying” is often mistaken for a shortage.
Colonial Pipeline delivers 45 percent of fuel in the southeast. They were victim to a ransomware attack by the group “DarkSide”.
Cyberattack on US pipeline is linked to criminal gang “Ransomware is when somebody takes over your system or your network, and in order to release it or go active again, you have to give them a ransom,” said Dr. Craig Albert, professor of intelligence and security studies at Augusta University. “And for this group it’s usually between like $200 thousand and $2 million, so it’s quite significant.”
In a statement Friday, Colonial Pipeline said they temporarily halted operations to contain the threat.
“They found out about it, it looks like, before the full attack was initiated. So then they shut everything off as a preemptive move,” Dr. Albert said.
From Russia to elections: How secure is the United States?
WJBF tv
2022-02-10
The Means Report turns its focus to all things political that are going on in the world right now. Certainly, the Russian threat constantly in the headlines. One year in to Joe Biden’s presidency, how are things going? Also, the upcoming nomination of a Supreme Court nominee, if you will, to replace the retiring Justice Breyer, that breaking just really before we started taping The Means Report pretty much. So, we’ll talk about that and everything else going on in our nation and world with our resident political scientist. He’s an Associate Professor of Political Science at Augusta University, also serves as the Director of the Master of Arts in Intelligence and Security Studies at AU, Craig Albert.
Tensions remain high between the United States and Russia over Russia’s military buildup near the Ukranian border. NATO defense ministers say they’re concerned that Russia could try to overtake Ukraine. They say Russia has built up the largest concentration of forces in Europe since the Cold War.
Dr. Craig Albert, Associate Professor of Political Science at Augusta University and Graduate Director of Intelligence and Security Studies spoke with NewsChannel 6 about the dispute. He said it stems back to the Cold War.
Why Americans should care about the Ukraine-Russia conflict
ABC News online
2022-02-20
After weeks of mounting tensions, United States officials have warned that a Russian attack on Ukraine could happen "any day now."
Russia has spent weeks building up military forces near eastern Ukraine, with more than 150,000 troops encircling Ukraine in Belarus and on the Russian side of the border, according to U.S. officials.
President Biden held a press conference Tuesday saying they're advancing sanctions in Russia.
Dr. Craig Albert, assistant professor of political science and director of intelligence and security studies at Augusta University says, “if Russia goes further with this invasion, we stand prepared to go further as with sanctions.”
Albert says this is becoming an economic conflict, hitting the Russian elite and those in parliament personally.
“So that means if you’re a member of the Duma in Russia, that’s what their parliament is called, and you have any funds; business funds, personal, checking account tied to a Western Bank, you will no longer have access to that starting tomorrow."
Why the West cares about the situation in Russia-Ukraine
CTV News tv
2022-02-24
As tensions continue to escalate between Russia and Ukraine, experts are warning the crisis may lead to a global conflict and could impact Western countries, including the state of their democracies.
Ukraine began urging its citizens to leave Russia after tensions escalated dramatically Tuesday when Russian President Vladimir Putin got the OK from lawmakers to use military force outside his country.
This comes after Putin signed a decree recognizing two pro-Russian breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent entities, which Western nations fear are potential ground zeros for invasion.
As Russia invades the Ukraine and the United States unleashes new sanctions on the communist country, The Means Report talks to Augusta University political scientist – Dr. Craig Albert – about what comes next and what impact we will possibly feel here at home.
As Russia massed troops along its border with Ukraine over the last few months, it was unclear whether Russian President Vladimir Putin would invade. But if he did, experts warned, Russia would bombard the nation with a series of cyberattacks to sow confusion and weaken its resolve.
On Feb. 24, Putin unveiled his plans. Moscow’s war machine rolled into the Eastern European nation. The combined Russian air, land and sea assault was preceded by waves of cyberattacks, the sort of gray-zone meddling analysts and defense officials had foreseen. Websites were hamstrung. Malware coursed through computers. Communications were hampered.
FLASHPOINT UKRAINE: Olena Zelenska asks US Congress for weapons so Ukrainians may return to normalcy
Voices of America radio
2022-07-20
Ukraine’s First Lady delivers impassioned remarks to the US Congress. Plus, what challenges face Kyiv as the officials say they will not cede territory to Russia, even though US intelligence suggests Moscow may annex occupied territory, as it did in 2014.
X—the platform formally known as Twitter—has been accused in the past week of allowing fake social media accounts to spread misinformation about the ongoing conflict.
Both sides have sought to win hearts and minds largely by showing the brutality of the war.
"It must be stated that the situation is still unfolding, and it is probably one of the most complicated, complex scenarios for intelligence and influence operations to date," explained Dr. Craig Albert, professor of political science and graduate director of the Master of Arts in Intelligence and Security Studies program at Augusta University. "Hamas has largely been trying to demonstrate that Israel is a rogue state, a pariah regime, oppressing and slaughtering innocent Palestinians. They are even posting videos and images of Russian phosphorus attacks against Ukraine earlier this year and stating that it is current Israeli strikes in the Gaza Strip."
That has been just one attempt by Hamas to gain sympathy and legitimacy for its actions.
“If Ukraine manages to get F-16s in the fight sooner rather than later, and longer-range missiles are given to them as well, this could cause a stalemate and force Russia into negotiation."
“Putin has doubled-down,” Albert said. “He has increased his forces in the fight, made more aggressive postures to NATO member states and has unleashed his cyber and informational capabilities across the world to take advantage in those realms. Putin continues to pursue pure power politics and is unlikely to back down.”
“There are two ways out of this, however,” said Albert. “The first is that the West, mainly the U.S., does not continue to arm Ukraine. If this becomes the new normal, then Ukraine will not be able to keep up against Russia and will eventually fall through a war of attrition being waged by Russia.” “The second, less likely but far more threatening scenario, is that Russia expands the war to other states in the area or inadvertently hits a NATO-member state with either kinetic or massive cyberattacks. It may draw NATO into the war directly. In this case, Ukraine takes the advantage, but the war expands to something not seen since World War II.”
The military application of artificial intelligence technology in the United States, China, and Russia and the implications for global security
Taylor & Francis Online
Lance Y. Hunter, Craig Albert, Christopher Hennigan and Josh Rutland
2023-05-11
A number of studies have considered the theoretical role that Artificial Intelligence (AI) may play in shaping the global balance of power in the future. While these studies are informative, we currently lack an understanding regarding the precise manner AI technologies are being applied and incorporated in militaries in major power states. Thus, in this study, we examine how AI technology is being applied in the militaries in the US, China, and Russia and analyse the implications for the future of AI, global military competition, and international security. We examine current research on the military application of AI technology in the US, China, and Russia and conduct expert interviews with leading AI experts in academia, think tanks, multinational technology companies, and the military to better understand how AI technology is being applied in the three major powers states and the implications for global security.
Artificial intelligence and information warfare in major power states: how the US, China, and Russia are using artificial intelligence in their information warfare and influence operations
Taylor & Francis Online
Lance Y. Hunter, Craig Albert, Josh Rutland, Kristen Topping, Christopher Hennigan
2024-03-05
Previous research in security studies contends that information warfare (IW) is becoming a critical element in states' overall security strategies. Additionally, many researchers posit that artificial intelligence (AI) is quickly emerging as an important component of digital communications and states' military applications worldwide. However, less is known regarding how states are incorporating AI in their information warfare and influence operations (IWIO). Thus, given the growing importance of AI and IW in global security, this paper examines how the United States, China, and Russia are incorporating AI in their IWIO strategies and tactics. We find that the US, China, and Russia are utilizing AI in their IWIO approaches in significant ways depending on each state's overall IW strategy, with important implications for international security.
Twitter Propaganda Operations: Analyzing Sociopolitical Issues in Saudi Arabia
Sage Journals
Craig Douglas Albert, Ahmed Aleroud, and Josh Rutland
2023-12-23
The purpose of this article is to explore Arabic-language Tweets based out of Saudi Arabia to investigate the social media landscape. Specifically, this article seeks to address the question, “What thematic issues concerning the U.S. socio-political landscape are present in Arabic-language Twitter postings?” And, “To what extent can these issues be described as propagandic in nature?” To do so, we propose a machine-learning and artificial intelligence span detection approach to identify propaganda Tweets in Middle Eastern Countries, with a focus on Saudi Arabia. As opposed to previous work, this article maps and investigates different propaganda categories using the BEND Social Cyber Security framework. This article then proceeds to a case study analysis of state-sponsored targeted propaganda from Saudi Arabia and briefly describes the categories of propaganda uncovered. We then relate those categories to the BEND Framework and conclude with policy recommendations and discussion.
Weaponizing Words: Using Technology to Proliferate Information Warfare
The Cyber Defense Review
Craig Douglas Albert, Ph.D., Lance Y Hunter, PhD, Samantha Mullaney Lieutenant Colonel Joseph Huitt, Lydia Snyder
2023-12-05
The United States risks losing its information advantage over its near-peer competitors, specifically China. One reason behind this possibility is that the U.S. lacks a coherent doctrine of information warfare, which has put the U.S. at a disadvantage. Considering the Russian interference in elections of several North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) states and allies, including Ukraine, Germany, and, the United States, most stunningly in the 2016 presidential election, this article addresses the question: What is to be done? Before delving into possible solutions, the exact nature of the complex problem must be explored. The purpose of this article is to investigate the ways the U.S. could improve in information warfare, specifically against one of its top near-peer competitors, China. First, this article summarizes how China compares with the United States concerning information warfare and influence operations. Second, it delves into some of the definitional chaos in which the U.S. is mired. Thirdly, the article illustrates the doctrinal and data policies of the U.S. Department of Defense. Finally, it concludes with policy recommendations.
Epidemiological intelligence fusion centers: health security and COVID-19 in the Dominican Republic
Taylor & Francis Online
Craig Albert, Alejandro Amando Baez, Lance Hunter, John Heslen, John Rutland
2022
Research on health security has focused on how many different political, economic, social, and health-related factors affect disease containment within states. However, largely missing from this scholarship is an examination of the role public health intelligence plays in limiting the spread of disease. Thus, this study focuses on the effect epidemiological intelligence fusion centers have on disease prevalence. We conduct a case study analysis of the Dominican Republic’s use of epidemiological intelligence fusion centers during the COVID-19 pandemic and provide policy recommendations for other states to follow.
Democracy and cyberconflict: how regime type affects state-sponsored cyberattacks
Journal Of Cyber Policy
Dr. Craig Albert, Dr. Lance Hunter, Eric Garrett, Josh Rutland
2022
A large body of research in international relations has focused on the relationship between regime type (i.e., the degree a nation is democratic or authoritarian) and traditional military conflict between states. However, to date, no research has examined how regime type affects conflict in the cyber domain. Thus, we attempt to analyze the effect regime type has on the initiation of state-sponsored cyberattacks. We examine 143 states from 2005 - 2013 utilizing cyber data on known state-sponsored cyberattacks taken from the Council on Foreign Relations Cyber Operations Tracker dataset (CFR-COTD) and economic, political, military, and social data collected by the authors. In conducting a cross-sectional, time series analysis we find that democratic institutions have a pacifying effect on the initiation of state-sponsored cyberattacks.
One of the most challenging issues any instructor of political philosophy faces is how to get college students interested and engaged in a discipline composed mostly of 'a bunch of dead white guys.' The task is hard enough for students already interested in theory and is even more daunting for the general education American government classroom.
The ethno-violence nexus: measuring ethnic group identity in Chechnya
East European Politics
2014
If scholars and policy-makers are to understand contemporary ethnic conflict, we must first understand ethnic group identity. I make the case that ethnic group identity has substantial effects on collective action, particularly violent conflict, and a mechanism must exist to predict behaviour to properly measure ethnic group identity. This study asks, then: what exactly is ethnic group identity and can it be accurately measured? I address this by developing the Ethnic Group Identity Index (EGII), which seeks to measure the strength of ethnic group identity. I then use the EGII to measure strength of ethnic group identity within Chechnya. The implications abound for policy-makers in matters of conflict management strategies for the Russo-Chechen conflict, and more generally, for all ethnic politics.
Teaching with Tocqueville: Assessing the Utility of Using ‘Democracy’ in the American Government Classroom to Achieve Student-Learning Outcomes
Journal of Political Science Education
2014
There is a debate in Political Science concerning how best to teach American Government courses. We investigate whether students learn more effectively with texts from the great tradition or from textbooks and other secondary sources. Which medium better guides students toward becoming better citizens? We examine how teaching “The Great Tradition” may increase success in student-learning outcomes. We examine four categories of learning outcomes in the Introduction to American Government classroom: general knowledge, ...
Defining Our Terms: Bringing Rigour to Ethnic Studies
Politics
2012
For decades, political scientists have grappled with the role identity has played in ethnic conflict. Surprisingly, these scholars have been unsuccessful in rigorously conceptualising some key terms in the field of ethnic studies. How can the causal forces of ethnic strife be unravelled if scholars cannot even agree on the meanings of essential concepts? This article carefully delineates the differences between ethnicity, ethnic groups and ethnic group identity, while showing the conceptual mistakes of some of the field's leading scholars. Often treated synonymously, these concepts are quite distinct: ignoring this not only makes for sloppy scholarship, but has grave policy consequences.
The Fourth Industrial Revolution, Artificial Intelligence, and Domestic Conflict
Taylor & Francis Online
Lance Y. Hunter, Craig Albert, Josh Rutland & Chris Hennigan
2022-11-22
An emerging field of scholarship in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and computing posits that AI has the potential to significantly alter political and economic landscapes within states by reconfiguring labor markets, economies, and political alliances, leading to possible societal disruptions. Thus, this study examines the potential destabilizing economic and political effects AI technology can have on societies and the resulting implications for domestic conflict based on research within the fields of political science, sociology, economics, and artificial intelligence. In addition, we conduct interviews with 10 international AI experts from think tanks, academia, multinational technology companies, the military, and cyber to assess the possible disruptive effects of AI and how they can affect domestic conflict. Lastly, the study offers steps governments can take to mitigate the potentially destabilizing effects of AI technology to reduce the likelihood of civil conflict and domestic terrorism within states.
Towards a General Theory of Ethnic Conflict: Explaining Identity and Violence in Chechnya
International Journal of Security Studies and Practice
Craig Albert
2023-02-28
The purposes of this article are to develop the beginnings of a general theory of ethnic conflict. Specifically, this paper examines and builds upon identity politics and the relationship between ethnic group identity and deadly ethnic violence. It develops the connection more clearly between three integral concepts including societal security, ontological security, and securitization. This paper argues that salient ethnic group identity acts as an underlying catalyst to deadly ethnic violence. Groups with salient identities often view their identity as a measure of security. Thus, any threat to a group’s identity, either perceived or real, is a threat to the group’s physical existence. The processes behind this connection are examined. Understanding the nexus between identity and violence allows for further research testing the hypothesis that the more salient an ethnic group identity is, the more likely deadly conflict will result. This paper concludes with policy recommendations and possible solutions to identity securitization in Chechnya.
Epidemic intelligence studies: A research agenda for political scientists
Cambridge University Press
Craig Albert
2023-03-24
This research letter introduces readers to health intelligence by conceptualizing critical components and providing a primer for research within political science broadly considered. Accordingly, a brief review of the literature is provided, concluding with possible future research agendas. The aim is to elaborate on the importance of public health intelligence to national security studies, and to political science more generally.
Socio-Emotional Computational Analysis of Propaganda Campaigns on Social Media Users in the Middle East
ACM Digital Library
Zain Halloush, Ahmed Aleroud, Craig Albert,
2023-04-30
Society has been significantly impacted by social media platforms in almost every aspect of their life. This impact has been effectively formulating people’s global mindsets and opinions on political, economic, and social events. Such waves of opinion formation are referred to as propagandas and misinformation. Online propaganda influences the emotional and psychological orientation of people. The remarkable leaps in Machine Learning models and Natural Language Processing have helped in analyzing the emotional and psychological effects of cyber social threats such as propaganda campaigns on different nations, specifically in the Middle East, where rates of disputes have risen after the Arab Spring and the ongoing crises. In this paper, we present an approach to detect propagandas and the associated emotional and psychological aspects from social media news headlines that contain such a contextualized cyber social attack. We created a new dataset of headlines containing propaganda tweets and another dataset of potential emotions that the audience might endure when being exposed to such propaganda headlines. We believe that this is the first research to address the detection of emotional reactions linked to propaganda types on social media in the Middle East.
